It is our tradition here in OTWOMD to predict the country of the next World Youth Day as far as the secrecy of the announcement is concerned. Though it is the major prerogative of the Pope to choose the next diocese to host the event, yet politics and bidding within the Catholic bishops circles does not help in keeping the excitement sealed, at least until the Pope announces the next world youth day at the final mass of the current world youth day. Rumors are now building up where the next world youth day will be. Although these are just rumors but often times it becomes true. so every rumor we hear is considered a potential host city until the truth is finally revealed by the Pope himself during the final mass. Of all the Catholic intrigues and rumors within the church, I think this rumor for the next WYD Host city is the only rumor worth wasting time with, and worth considering, since it fuels excitement and interest in the upcoming world youth days. It gives young people in third world nations hope to meet the pope in the next event. Although lately the world youth day protocol in choosing the host city has become more of a political decision likened to the Olympics. Yet we should also consider that the Pope, before choosing a host city, prays upon the cities and decide based on the urgency , necessity and capacity of that city to host such an international event.

During the reign of Pope John Paul II, the public do not have a prior knowledge where the World Youth Day will be held next. Usually it is the chosen diocese which is informed beforehand of the announcement that will be made by the Pope. During the closing mass at WYD 1993 in Denver, John Paul II did not announce the next world youth day until 8 months later during the palm Sunday in Rome. Today, the world evolved and there is no more secret or rumor that cannot fly in the speed of light with the advent of social networks and civilian journalists in the form of blogs, rumors spread as easily as wildfires. The rumor which is circulating this past few weeks is the rumor that the next world youth day will be in Rio de Janeiro tentatively on July 8-13, 2013.

2013, 2014 or 2015 World Youth Day?

During John Paul II’s time, World Youth Days are celebrated every two years except during 2000 to coincide with the Jubilee Year in Rome and on 2005 in Cologne when the Pope’s health was gradually deteriorating. Both world youth days were held with 3 year gaps instead of the usual two-year gaps. But upon Benedict XVI’s ascent to papacy, he made the celebration every three years to maximize the preparations of each host city and also to not coincide with other international events like the World Cup and the Olympic Games.

If we will follow Benedict XVI’s pattern, the next world youth day should be held in 2014 given the three year gap. Yet according to the rumor, the world youth day will be earlier as planned and will be in 2013. Contrary to what the Brazilian Bishops are rallying for back in 2007 when they lobbied to the Pope to award the next world youth day in Brazil in 2015. The likelihood that the next world youth day will be in Brazil is not questionable, what’s confusing is when it will be held: will it be on 2013, 2014 or 2015? 2014 will be an unlikely year since it will clash with the 2014 world cup to be held in Rio. It is also unlikely that it will be held on 2015 like what the bishops are previously proposing since the gap year is too long. 4 years gap is not commendable because there are many areas in the world that needs rejuvenation by the World Youth Days. The most likely year will be 2013 because it is the perfect year to open Brazil to the world before two major international events transpire on 2014 (World Cup) and 2016 (Summer Olympics).

Why Brazil?

Why is Brazil a likely choice for the Holy Father for the next world youth day? Aside from Australia that has been plagued with Atheism and Spain with Secularism, Brazil is one of the Catholic Church stronghold that is also slipping from the fold via relativism. In the past years, both Pope John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI delivered messages directly against the ideology of relativism. Relativism is an ideological thought that is spreading among Catholics in south america. Aside from relativism, the liberation theology is still rampant in the region. Benedict XVI is known for his vocal opposition against liberation theology ever since his stint as Cardinal Ratzinger in the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

Brazil presently has a population of 195 million, out of which 162 million are Catholics. The Piauí state of Brazil has 90% of its population Catholics and the state of Rio de Janeiro has the lowest number of Catholics which is currently 56% of the total population of the Rio State.

Brazilian Catholicism has declined over the past several years due to influences by Pentecostals and Evangelicals who promises good fortune and prosperity along with worshiping God. from the 90% of Catholics in the total population it slipped down to 74% due to various reasons like church issues on women priests, abortion, contraceptives, gay marriages and sex scandals.

The Catholic Church in Brazil like most other countries are also struggling its existence among the people. But what is unique and urgent about Brazil’s opportunity to host the world youth day on 2013 is threefold:

1. It’s remote distance and accessibility from Rome compared to other western countries
2. It’s striking number of people living in poverty and has no means to attend world youth day
3. and the future role that Brazil is going to play in the international arena with its twin opportunity of the World Cup and the Olympics.

Brazil will be a perfect choice to host the next world youth day. It’s like all circumstance, opportunity and historical instances are all pointing in the direction of the largest Catholic nation in South america.

The rumors must be true

The Archbishop of Sao Paulo, Brazil announced on June 26 that 10,000 Brazilians are registered to attend World Youth Day 2011 in Madrid, Spain. In a reflection, Cardinal Odilo Scherer explained that the theme of World Youth Day refers to a passage from St. Paul’s Letter to the Colossians in which he speaks of his trials and struggles as a missionary of the Gospel. St. Paul then encourages the community to remain firm in what they learned from Christ. Cardinal Scherer said St. Paul’s warning to the Colossians came after “that Christian community had been infiltrated by false ‘preachers’ and ‘teachers’ who presented obscure theories and ideas from Greek mythology and cosmology about different divinities and cosmic forces that governed peoples’ lives.” These false “teachers” are also present “in our times and they draw in people who are not firm in the faith,” he said.

With the large number of Pilgrims being sent by the Catholic Church of Brazil in Madrid this coming World Youth Day 2011, you can’t help but wonder why they are sending so many delegates. Last 2008, the Spanish delegates were enormous in WYD in sydney and they had the front seat row during the last mass. Is this a sign that the rumors are true? that a large number of Brazilian Pilgrims flocking to Madrid is some kind of Preparation to welcome the World in Latin America?

It’s still a rumor

As long as there is no official statement from the Vatican and from the Pope himself that will confirm the next world youth day in Rio, therefore we can still consider it as a Rumor. Although 3 dioceses has already published a page on their respective websites about the 2013 world youth day in rio, until the Pope announce it, it is still a rumor

Other countries rumored to host or wanted to host the next world youth day are as follows:

United Kingdom – after the visit of Pope Benedict XVI in the Uk last 2010, the vocation in the country rose to a staggering number never before seen. Many of the Anglicans converted to Catholicism and the number of people wanted to become catholic increased. That’s why the idea of bringing the WYD to the British soil is not impossible but rather welcomed by most British Catholics.

South Korea – The first and last time that World Youth Day was brought to Asia was in 1995 WYD in Manila wherein 5 million people attended the Pope’s last mass. A feat that until now has never been broken by any other human assembly. South Korea’s Catholicism is flourishing and the bishops from this nation wanted to bring the message of the Gospel to their shores. Apparently neighboring North Korea is not that friendly so the chances of a youth religious event to happen in South Korea is still slim, especially when the North keeps on provoking the South. We dont want missiles flying over the korean skies when the Pope says his mass dont we?

Dublin, Ireland – one of the loudest rumors yet. There are reports that the Pope might consider Ireland as the next world youth day host because of the current dilemma that the Church is facing there but these are just rumors. There are no official initiative from Irish Bishops in asking the Pope to award the next hosting job to Ireland. plus, there are other priorities which Ireland need to focus before celebrating faith with the youth and you know what I’m referring to.

Houston, Texas – an official page lobbying for the next world youth day to be held in the US city of Houston is online. But there is no official word from the Bishops so this has got to be a pure rumor.

Minneapolis, Minnesota – Another Facebook page was created for the purpose of lobbying for the city to host the next world youth day. The chances that the US can host another World Youth Day is big but not in these cities. If there are two cities that really needs the miraculous touch of world Youth Day in terms of urgency, that has got to be New York City or Los Angeles.

Beirut – A third Facebook page exist for the promotion of world youth day in Beirut, Lebanon. But there are no official initiative coming from the bishops or from the Lebanese heirarchy, so these are probably just created by random young people who wanted to take World Youth Day in their respective countries.

Africa, China and the Middle East – there are rumors in various catholic forums that a twist might exist in the announcement of World Youth Day in these countries but it is very unlikely. It would be nice to bring the event to Africa for our brother and sisters there who continuously suffer poverty and hunger or the minority of Catholics in Iraq, Egypt facing discrimination and terror, or in China Perhaps whose diplomatic ties with the Vatican does not  exist anymore after the unauthorized ordination, but these will remain as rumors as far as security and diplomatic ties are concerned. Securities in these regions are unpredictable, to hold such christian-religious event in a communist country or in an Arab nation is like inviting Al Qaeda to party with other young people with bombs attached to their chests.

For now we can only speculate, even if a Vatican Insider has already confirmed that it would be in Rio, we still need to hear it from the Horse’s mouth. until then, we are obliged to pray that the Holy Spirit might guide the Pope in choosing the most deserving city / country to host the next world youth day.

UPDATE

We are Correct! Pope Benedict XVI announced just a few minutes ago during the Final Mass the next World Youth Day 2013 which will be held in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.